Report
Published February 20, 2025
Economic & Market Insights
While all eyes are on the impact of tariffs, immigration policy, and other proposals coming out of the new administration, the five key trends that I’ll be watching in 2025 have been playing out over the last couple of years and will be important to how the economy and lending market unfolds in the year ahead.
Trends include:
- The slowdown in the “white-collar” job market
- The stabilization of consumer delinquency
- The letting up of lending standard tightening
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Report
Lending Conditions Chartbook Q1 2025
In our Q1 Lending Conditions Chartbook, we break down the latest economic trends and dive deep into credit conditions across products and regions.
Insights include:
- The labor market appears on decent footing but there are signs of slowing.
- Credit growth remains subdued and is running below its pre-pandemic average as financial institutions maintain tight lending standards and interest rates remain elevated.
- Looking at origination activity, there has been a meaningful pickup among fintechs and in unsecured personal loans.
Video
A Growing Small Business Financial Fraud Problem
This week’s Commercial Pulse Report from Experian reveals critical shifts in the economy for small businesses. Inflation eased slightly to 2.8%, and the Small Business Index ticked up to 41.5—signs of stabilization. But rising financial fraud remains a major concern. Also:
🔒 70% increase in fraud since the pandemic
🧠 $40B in projected losses from AI-driven scams by 2027
📊 46% of SMB loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud
Lenders are responding with AI-powered analytics and cross-industry collaboration to stay ahead of these threats.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
Report
Trade War Blues
The escalating trade war and rising economic uncertainty are causing businesses and lenders to adopt a cautious approach, potentially slowing investment and hiring. If this trend continues, the economy could face long-term risks, including reduced lending, weaker job growth, and increased vulnerability to unemployment spikes. Insights include:
- Business investment was already slowing before the trade war, and uncertainty is now at an all-time high.
- Banks may tighten lending further due to rising business delinquency and unrealized losses in securities portfolios.
- The labor market, while stable, is struggling with low hiring rates, making it harder to absorb job seekers.
- A prolonged decline in business investment could trigger higher unemployment if layoffs accelerate.