State of the economy report - February 2025

While all eyes are on the impact of tariffs, immigration policy, and other proposals coming out of the new administration, the five key trends that I’ll be watching in 2025 have been playing out over the last couple of years and will be important to how the economy and lending market unfolds in the year ahead.

Trends include:

• The slowdown in the “white-collar” job market
• The stabilization of consumer delinquency
• The letting up of lending standard tightening

Experian's State of Credit Unions Report explores data-driven credit trends in the credit union space, with a particular focus on auto loans, unsecured personal loans and unsecured credit cards.

Take a deep dive into:

• Trends in originations and delinquencies among credit union members
• How credit unions fare against other financial institutions
• Strategies to attract new members and mitigate portfolio risk

This week's Commercial Pulse Report highlights key economic trends and small business credit conditions, providing insights for lenders, risk professionals, and business leaders.

The U.S. economy continues to face high interest rates and shifting market conditions:

• Inflation rose to 2.9% in December, marking its third consecutive increase and the highest level since July 2024.
• Unemployment declined to 4.0% in January, the lowest level since April 2024, but job growth slowed, with only 143K jobs added.
• Q4 GDP grew at 2.3%, down from 3.1% in Q3, indicating a moderate but slowing expansion.
• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation.

This report features the latest findings from the Experian Small Business Index™, a data-driven tool tracking small business financial health.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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Key Results:

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